Has it become harder to fly using points?

As someone who’s been involved in the frequent flyer ‘game’ for nearly two decades, I’ve seen a lot happen over that time. New routes have launched – and later, been axed. Airlines I’ve flown with have come and gone. In fact, aircraft I once habitually flew no longer exist in Australian skies. But a big change I’ve noticed is that it’s become harder to fly using frequent flyer points. Not impossible, but still, harder.

I remember the days when you could set a calendar reminder to search for a flight at exactly 10 am, to depart in almost a year. Knowing that 99% of the time, just as the flight went on sale, there’d be a Business Class reward seat. But in 2025, the game has changed.

This isn’t to say that flying long-haul Business Class is now unachievable. Or that there’s any need to panic. But just as the only thing certain in life is change, the same can be said of frequent flyer programs. Keeping up with the latest is part of the fun – but a huge part of the challenge.

Let’s take a look at some of what’s changed in recent years, and how you can keep winning the game in the pursuit of flying in 1A.

As flights get more popular, it’s harder to find reward seats

Whether you can book a flight on points comes down to a simple balance between supply and demand. In past years, airlines were routinely jetting off with plenty of unsold seats. This unlocked the phenomenal potential to use points to secure seats that would otherwise fly empty. After all, an airline would rather take something than nothing.

But now, things are different. The pandemic-era travel slump has well and truly passed. Beyond what some called ‘revenge travel’, passengers are back. We’re all taking holidays, visiting loved ones and exploring new cities. And during COVID, airlines took the chance to get more efficient. Many carriers have permanently parked larger planes (with greater capacity) in favour of using smaller, more nimble jets that better-reflect the demand of paying customers.

Other airlines have taken the chance to reconfigure aircraft, to more closely align with that paid demand. Look at Singapore Airlines Suites on the Airbus A380. What had been a cabin of 12 Suites is now just six. And since that happened, I can’t remember the last time I saw a ‘Suites Saver’ reward seat through KrisFlyer between Australia and Singapore.

Add to that, airlines have invested big in technology. This allows many carriers to analyse and predict – in much greater detail – how many seats they’ll be able to sell for money before bookings close. For instance, by fine-tuning algorithms that factor in past revenue patterns, known major events, sales trends, overall industry performance and more.

Whichever way you slice it, when you can fill a plane with people buying tickets, there’s little need to release seats for booking using points. An airline will almost always take fresh revenue over a chance to whittle down the liability of a handful of points. As passengers become frustrated with the challenges of spending their points, airlines create solutions. For instance, Qantas with its Classic Plus flight rewards, which convert points into a cash value equivalent to buying a seat.

For the reward seats that remain, online bookings increase the competition from other flyers searching for the same. Part of me loved the days when some key reward flights could only be booked by phone. There’d be a real incentive to do your research and learn the ins and outs of each airline and program. The game has changed.

Reward rates are up, making each flight harder to achieve

When was the last time an airline said, ‘hey, we’ve just cut our redemption rates across the board’? At least, when one token cut didn’t lead to an increase somewhere else? I can’t recall such a time. Just like inflation in society – and cash airfare prices, in tune – reward rates continue to climb, and I can’t say that isn’t fair.

Still, there can be significant differences between the ways that airlines implement that. While some airlines have moved slower than others to increase redemption costs, many have made a more drastic shift. These changes can take several forms, including:

• Direct increases to current frequent flyer redemption rates.
• Changing distance bands or frequent flyer ‘zones’, making existing routes more expensive to book.
• Shifting partner airlines from one established reward table to another.
• Abolishing published reward charts to make future changes less detectable and less measurable.
• Imposing or significantly increasing the ‘carrier charges‘ payable on top of the points required.
• A partial or complete shift to dynamic reward seat pricing.

Regardless of the program I’m using, I need more points to fly now than I did 20 years ago. And by needing more points per flight, the same balance of points in 2025 doesn’t achieve what it did in the years gone by.

It can be harder to earn frequent flyer points

This is a bit of a double whammy. Not only do we often need more points to fly these days, but in many cases, those points are harder to earn in the first place. In effect, people now ‘get less’ from spending the same. Just take Australia’s credit card industry as an example.

I recall the days where it was very easy to earn 1.5 airline frequent flyer points per dollar spent, uncapped. And where credit cards had lower annual fees while offering a greater per-dollar earning rate. But you might not realise that behind the scenes, banks ‘buy’ frequent flyer points from the airlines. And, just like inflation, those costs can increase over time.

On top of that, the Reserve Bank also imposed caps on ‘interchange fees’. That is, the amount that merchant acquirers could pass through to credit card issuers, when their customer used their card. This mechanism is largely how banks can afford to ‘buy’ those points in the first place, because they’re earning revenue behind the scenes every time you use your card. You get rewarded, and the bank gets paid – it’s a win-win. But with less revenue per dollar, and frequent flyer points getting more expensive, earning rates had to take a haircut.

Some issuers simply reduced the number of frequent flyer points earned per dollar spent. Others imposed monthly or yearly capping or tiering, to reduce or zero the earning rates above certain spending thresholds. Some increased annual or rewards fees, to help pay for those points, and others devalued the conversion rates when transferring credit card points into airline miles. In fact, some card issuers did all of the above.

Funnily enough, credit card sign-up offers have trended to be more generous with a lot of issuers. But the everyday, per-dollar earning rates have generally decreased over the years.

Airlines have changed how and when travellers can book reward flights

I mentioned the ’10 am trick’ further above. For those new to the game, that meant waiting until the very second a flight was loaded for sale, and using that as an opportunity to try and grab a reward seat. It worked because airlines would often pre-load a number of reward seats on every flight. And by knowing the exact moment those flights would open to the public (midnight GMT, which is 10 am AEST or 11 am during daylight savings), you could pounce.

These days, I find it doesn’t work anywhere near as often. In fact, I cast my mind back to three long-haul jaunts booked on points, and how my strategy had to change each time.

2017: Cathay Pacific Business Class from Paris to Brisbane, via Hong Kong. The 10 am trick worked beautifully. One morning, I could see that Paris-Hong Kong had loaded in. Because the HK-Brisbane flight departed the next calendar day, I had to wait one more day to book them together. I kept my fingers crossed, searched the next morning, and voila. Two Business Class tickets secured from Europe to Australia, with minimal fuss.

2022: Etihad Business Class from New York to Sydney, via Abu Dhabi. This time, it took me weeks of searching. Hours spent every night after work, trying every possible combination. And while I could have spent points from a few different programs on a multitude of airlines, I was hoping to use up some Velocity Points. Eventually, I found that if I booked the two legs separately (paying greater points, mind you) and had a two-night stopover, I could lock-in Business Class.

2024: Business Class to Europe, round trip. To be fair, my trip aligned with the December/January school holidays, so I wasn’t expecting it to be easy. But to get the flights I needed, I had to make bookings through five separate frequent flyer programs to stitch my trip together. And with two overnights in transit along the way, which I could have done without. Even then, one flight still had to be taken in Economy.

However, it’s worth pointing out that some airlines and frequent flyer programs are now releasing more reward seats closer to departure. That’s great for last-minute hops, including securing seats in United Polaris using Velocity Points.

Airlines can favour their own frequent flyers

Tried to book a Qatar Airways flight lately using Qantas Points? How about an Etihad Airways Business Class flight using Velocity Points more than a month in advance? These airlines, and many more, are now giving ‘first dibs’ on reward seats to their own frequent flyers.

On the one hand, it’s a great policy if you have a diverse pool of frequent flyer points. Or if you’re already loyal to that airline and have points or miles in the right place. But for your average Aussie trying to spend Australian frequent flyer points, it’s another hurdle to jump over.

To be fair, airlines in Australia do exactly the same thing. Qantas doesn’t merely reserve more seats for members of Qantas Frequent Flyer. It actively makes more seats available for those at the higher tiers. A Qantas Platinum member looking for flights to London is going to have much more luck than a Bronze traveller seeking the same.

Even where partner airlines are releasing seats to each other, availability can vary. Take Singapore Airlines as an example. There are times where I’ve seen Business Class seats open through KrisFlyer, but not through Velocity. At other times, a flight can be open to members of Aeroplan and not to Velocity. But in reverse, I’ve also seen Singapore Airlines flights bookable with Velocity Points that weren’t open to KrisFlyer members. It’s all part of the game.

So, what can you do?

Yes, it’s harder to travel using frequent flyer points than in the years gone by. But it’s far from impossible, and there are still plenty of opportunities to travel in Business Class and even First Class for less. It just takes a little more planning and more of a strategy.

Here are five things you can do to significantly increase your odds of winning the frequent flyer game.

1. Be flexible on how and when you travel. Did I want to fly from Melbourne to Budapest via Singapore, London and Amsterdam on my last holiday? Not particularly. But did I want to book that journey on points to fly in more comfort and save on cost? Absolutely.
2. Speaking of flexibility, collect flexible points. Rather than earning all of your points in a single frequent flyer program, diversify and you’ll have access to more reward seat options when you need to fly. This is particularly true of points earned through spending, such as from credit cards or through platforms like PayRewards.
3. Use multiple frequent flyer programs. This follows on from flexibility, but it’s about more than just transferring points. Let’s say you prefer to fly with Qantas. Still, Virgin Australia’s frequent flyer program is free to join, so why not get involved? There’ll be opportunities where you can only earn Velocity Points, for which you couldn’t earn Qantas Points. Wouldn’t you rather have some points than none at all – giving you even more flexibility when booking your next holiday?
4. Subscribe to Point Hacks’ reward seat alert emails. We’re always keeping our eyes peeled for large drops of reward seats on enviable flights. Sign up for our free email alerts to be notified when we do, including the number of points you need and the dates open for booking.
5. Still stuck? Try the Point Hacks Concierge. Our team can help you craft a bespoke itinerary matched with available reward seats using the points you already have. Assistance fees apply.

Also read: When do frequent flyer programs release reward seats?

Featured image courtesy of Singapore Airlines.

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